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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a remarkable 22.7% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
  • After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has been rising this year, now boasting 86.0 per game.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 63.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 43.8.
  • Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.38 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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