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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With an exceptional 24.4% Red Zone Target Share (92nd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle places among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the league.
  • Jaylen Waddle has notched far more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
  • Jaylen Waddle's 63.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 43.8.
  • With an excellent rate of 0.42 per game through the air (88th percentile), Jaylen Waddle places as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league versus the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.6 per game) this year.

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