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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Jaylen Waddle has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has posted big gains this year, currently pacing 84.0 per game.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 60.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 43.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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