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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • The model projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 8.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game in this game (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.3% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 50.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 27.2 per game) this year.
  • The Dolphins offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.3%) to WRs this year (59.3%).

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