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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
  • The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to notch 8.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to be a more important option in his team's passing offense this week (25.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.4% in games he has played).
  • Jaylen Waddle rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
  • Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 69.6% to 74.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 49.8 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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