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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+138/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in football (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins.

With a top-tier 81.1% Snap% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Waddle places among the running backs with the biggest workloads in football.

With a fantastic 3.5 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands as one of the best WRs in the league in the NFL.

Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 69.6% to 81.2%.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's group of CBs has been dreadful since the start of last season, profiling as the 7th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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