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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -164 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 6-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • This week, Jaylen Waddle is forecasted by the model to finish in the 91st percentile among WRs with 8.3 targets.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 43.8.
  • Jaylen Waddle is positioned as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
  • The Buccaneers linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.9 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
  • The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the league this year.
  • Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 69.6% to 64.6%.

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