My Account Log Out
 
 
Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +111 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -102.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The leading projections forecast Jaylen Waddle to accrue 8.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 60.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 43.8.
  • Jaylen Waddle is positioned as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 4.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
  • This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins have been the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™