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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this contest, Jaylen Waddle is predicted by the projections to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 43.8.
  • Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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