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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in football (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins.

With a top-tier 81.1% Snap% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Waddle places among the running backs with the biggest workloads in football.

Jaylen Waddle has received a whopping 24.8% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 69.6% to 81.2%.

Since the start of last season, the weak Jets defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a whopping 8.60 yards.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Jaylen Waddle's 37.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 49.0 rate.

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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