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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this contest, Jaylen Waddle is predicted by the projections to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
  • After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last season, Jaylen Waddle has seen marked improvement this season, currently sitting at 74.0 per game.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 43.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
  • Jaylen Waddle's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.88 mark last season.

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