Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:25 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has totaled a whopping 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 66.8%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the NFL.

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