Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-263).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued many more air yards this season (98.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 60.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 53.7.
Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 97th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.75 per game.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.8%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.9% to 62.8%.

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