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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -177.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaylen Waddle has notched quite a few more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Jaylen Waddle's 52.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 80th percentile for WRs.

Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.60 per game.

The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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