Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Waddle has notched quite a few more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 52.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 80th percentile for WRs.
Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.60 per game.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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