Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-213).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -213.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jaylen Waddle has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (87.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 53.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 80th percentile for WRs.
Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 95th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.67 per game.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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