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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jayden Reed Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • While Jayden Reed has garnered 10.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 18.2%.
  • Jayden Reed's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 75.1% to 80.1%.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (75th percentile), Jayden Reed places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to wideouts this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chicago Bears defense has been torched for the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 1.29 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 51.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league in these cases has been the Packers.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Jayden Reed's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 36.8.
  • The Chicago defensive tackles project as the 4th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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