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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Jayden Reed Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-495).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -495.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • Jayden Reed has been one of the most reliable receivers in the league, catching a fantastic 74.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile among wideouts.
  • With a remarkable rate of 0.37 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jayden Reed rates as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to WRs since the start of last season.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the NFL versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.33 receiving TDs per game to opposing wide receivers: the largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • With a 53.5% rate of running the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL in these cases has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • The projections expect the Packers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • Jayden Reed has rushed for 0.06 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends (92nd percentile).

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