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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Jayden Reed's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 75.1% to 86.8%.
  • The Bears pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.7%) versus wideouts this year (67.7%).
  • The Bears linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • Jayden Reed's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 36.8.

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