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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Jayden Reed rates as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an excellent 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
  • Jayden Reed's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 75.1% to 80.1%.
  • This year, the porous Chicago Bears pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-worst rate in football.
  • When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Chicago's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Jayden Reed's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 36.8.

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