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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -144 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense last year: 4th-most in the league.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

Jayden Reed grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 75.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.1 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).

Last year, the stout Lions defense has surrendered a paltry 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the league.

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