Jayden Reed Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jayden Reed

NFL · Player Props

Jayden Reed

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Our trusted projections expect Jayden Reed to earn 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
While Jayden Reed has received 16.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's pass game this week at 22.0%.
With a stellar 70.6% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) this year, Jayden Reed ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.
The Tampa Bay cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.

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