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Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Jaxson Dart Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 139.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.
  • This year, the porous New Orleans Saints defense has been gouged for a staggering 2.25 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 9th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (45.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New York Giants.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The projections expect Jaxson Dart to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game (21.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • Since the start of last season, the stout New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a feeble 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

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