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Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jaxson Dart TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The New York Giants have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
  • In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the poor Commanders defense has given up a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-worst rate in football.
  • This year, the anemic Commanders defense has yielded a staggering 2.00 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Giants to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Jaxson Dart is expected by the predictive model to total the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.2.

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