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Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Jaxson Dart TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The Giants have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.0 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-focused team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
  • Jaxson Dart has attempted a mere 23.6 throws per game this year, ranking in the 14th percentile among QBs.
  • This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a meager 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-best rate in the league.
  • The Lions linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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