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Jaxson Dart Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-103/-123).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -103.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -7-point disadvantage, the Giants are enormous underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.The Giants have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.0 plays per game.The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.This year, the deficient Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the worst rate in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Giants to pass on 55.1% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The projections expect the Giants to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 31.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.
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