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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -162.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 128.6 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has garnered 16.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Seattle's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 29.6%.

After averaging 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has produced significantly more this year, now boasting 118.0 per game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 2nd-most run-focused team in football near the goal line (50.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Seahawks.

The fewest plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average).

This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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