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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -168.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 138.9 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 89th percentile among WRs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has totaled a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 62.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 86th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7 points.

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The Seahawks have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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