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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 22

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a high 26.2% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places as one of the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
  • After accumulating 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has undergone big improvement this year, now averaging 107.0 per game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 57.4.
  • With an impressive 75.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates as one of the most reliable receivers in football among wide receivers.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks in the 95th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a fantastic 0.50 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (50.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Seahawks.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 26.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: fewest in the league.

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