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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 131.0 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.2% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accrued many more air yards this year (105.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 57.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (only 49.2 per game on average).
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in football.

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