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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-111/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's game (32.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.6% in games he has played).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put up far more air yards this season (109.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 57.6.
  • With an excellent 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates among the best possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • The San Francisco defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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