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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Carolina Panthers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (33.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).
  • After accumulating 73.0 air yards per game last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has shown good development this season, now averaging 110.0 per game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 87.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 57.6.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 75.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 90th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.4 plays per game.

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