Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 19, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The predictive model expects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the end zone in this week's contest (31.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has compiled significantly more air yards this year (110.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 57.6.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.0% red zone run rate.
The 6th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (just 53.3 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (68.3% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.