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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • The predictive model expects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the end zone in this week's contest (31.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has compiled significantly more air yards this year (110.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 57.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.0% red zone run rate.
  • The 6th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (just 53.3 per game on average).
  • The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (68.3% Adjusted Completion%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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