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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-114/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.
  • While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has garnered 27.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Seattle's offense near the end zone this week at 32.1%.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accumulated far more air yards this year (113.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 57.6.
  • With a fantastic 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the best possession receivers in football among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 51.7% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.

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