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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-102/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Seahawks are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this week's contest (33.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.8% in games he has played).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 54.0% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (52.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.1 per game) this year.

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