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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this game (35.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.5% in games he has played).
  • After averaging 73.0 air yards per game last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seen marked improvement this season, now averaging 121.0 per game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 92.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.
  • With a remarkable 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a huge 11.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (51.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Seahawks.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see just 127.9 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Seahawks this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

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