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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (30.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accumulated far more air yards this season (121.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 51.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (68.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the formidable Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered a measly 0.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

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