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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accumulate 10.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 84.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 57.6.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 80.9% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies an impressive gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 75.6% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seahawks this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this season represents a material decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 5.9 mark.

The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.5%) to wide receivers this year (59.5%).

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the best in football.

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