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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-124/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -124.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.

The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to earn 10.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

With an impressive 26.1% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba checks in as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 5.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an exceptional 78.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a feeble 58.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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