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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.80 seconds per snap.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

In this week's game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected by the predictive model to land in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 10.6 targets.

With a stellar 5.5 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been as one of the leading WRs in the NFL in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offensive blueprint to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

Right now, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (57.9% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Seahawks.

The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much less involved in his team's passing attack in this week's game (32.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (42.4% in games he has played).

The Seattle offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Cardinals linebackers profile as the 8th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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