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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+148/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.

In this week's game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.5 targets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 25.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

With a remarkable 6.1 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Seahawks offensive approach to lean 7.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seahawks are projected by the projections to call only 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.

The Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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