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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.

In this week's game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is predicted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 11.4 targets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this year (36.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.3%).

With a terrific 6.3 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

With an excellent 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates among the best possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

More Jaxon Smith-Njigba Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 18