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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-143/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -143.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to notch 10.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 36.6% Target Share this season conveys a material growth in his passing attack usage over last season's 24.3% figure.Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 6.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.With a fantastic 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the best possession receivers in football among WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
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