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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accrue 11.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 36.9% Target Rate this year shows a significant improvement in his air attack utilization over last year's 24.3% rate.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba comes in as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 6.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 76.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.1 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Seahawks grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year.

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