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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to notch 10.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this year (38.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (24.3%).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 6.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an outstanding 76.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile among wideouts.
  • This year, the poor Titans pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a big 12.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 49.5% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Titans, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.

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