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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+128/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -141.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
  • The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Rams defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.
  • In this contest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 12.3 targets.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this year (39.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The Rams linebackers grade out as the 6th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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