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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+107/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has run a route on 92.6% of his offense's passing plays last year, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The predictive model expects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to earn 8.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the leading WRs in the NFL last year, averaging a terrific 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks as one of the best possession receivers in football, completing an impressive 75.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Seahawks to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.2 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.

The Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.9 per game) last year.

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