Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing a stellar 80.5% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (72.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (72.6%).

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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