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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-118/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.

The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to earn 10.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

With an impressive 26.1% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (105.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba checks in as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 72.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.55 mark last year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 104.0) to WRs this year.

This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a measly 5.8 yards.

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