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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 98.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 94.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 98.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to notch 10.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 36.6% Target Share this season conveys a material growth in his passing attack usage over last season's 24.3% figure.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accumulated far more air yards this year (113.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a noteworthy decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 4.6% figure.

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