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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 85.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 90.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The predictive model expects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accrue 11.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 36.9% Target Rate this year shows a significant improvement in his air attack utilization over last year's 24.3% rate.Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Seahawks are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.1 per game) this year.When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Seahawks grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year.
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